US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.6pts: 2¢ at window start → 2¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 2¢ (band 2¢–11¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 bid, $10.8k/$10.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $493, 1.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,168 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $33.4k in 24h

Book 1.0:1 bid, $10.8k/$10.6k within 10¢ · spread 0.3¢

Triggers (1)

• 23 Aug 2026, 01:20 UTC: Band breach (lower): 2¢ → 2¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 2¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 2¢, held +0.7ptspts
• Peak move: +0.7pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 2¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots