US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 80¢ at window start → 81¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.2:1 ask, $35.1k/$76.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $61.3k in 24h

Book 2.2:1 ask, $35.1k/$76.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 23 Aug 2026, 22:47 UTC: Band breach (upper): 80¢ → 81¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.11× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 81¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 81¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 81¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots