US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 84¢ at window start → 81¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 80¢ (band 71¢–80¢)
  band from 126 hourly obs / 5.2d
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 ask, $30.9k/$58.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.4k, 1.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 339 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $61.3k in 24h

Book 1.9:1 ask, $30.9k/$58.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 23 Aug 2026, 20:47 UTC: Sustained reprice: 84¢ → 80¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 23 Aug 2026, 20:50 UTC: Band breach (upper): 80¢ → 81¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.37× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 81¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 81¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 81¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots