US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +6.5pts: 27¢ at window start → 33¢ at close
• BOOK Book 6.8:1 bid, $29.6k/$4.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $10.6k, 8.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 255 trades / 7d
• VOLUME $63.1k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 6.8:1 bid, $29.6k/$4.4k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (4)

• 23 Aug 2026, 04:29 UTC: Sustained reprice: 27¢ → 31¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 23 Aug 2026, 04:47 UTC: Sustained reprice: 31¢ → 35¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 23 Aug 2026, 05:25 UTC: Sustained reprice: 35¢ → 31¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 23 Aug 2026, 05:42 UTC: Sustained reprice: 31¢ → 36¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 63 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 31¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 32¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +9.5pts
• Held 68% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 33¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots