UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.5pts: 14¢ at window start → 16¢ at close
• VOLUME 11.7× this market's 7-day norm, $12.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $993/$1.5k within 10¢

Book 1.5:1 ask, $993/$1.5k within 10¢ · spread 4.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 23 Aug 2026, 20:56 UTC: Sustained reprice: 14¢ → 18¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 23 Aug 2026, 21:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 18¢ → 14¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.44× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 18¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 15¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 56% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 16¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots