REPRICED FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Window 23 Aug 2026, 23:02 UTC → 24 Aug 2026, 00:32 UTC

Price at window start 33¢ → at trigger 37¢ → at close 36¢

YES up · NO down

Resolves 31 Oct 2026, 23:59 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced +3.5pts: 33¢ at window start → 36¢ at close
VOLUME 2.2× this market's 7-day norm, $9.4k in 24h
BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $1.9k/$2.8k within 10¢
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $414, 1.2× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 248 trades / 7d

Book 1.5:1 ask, $1.9k/$2.8k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

23 Aug 2026, 23:02 UTC: Sustained reprice: 33¢ → 37¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.27× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
10 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 37¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
+30m: 37¢, held +4.5ptspts
Peak move: +4.5pts
Held 78% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 36¢
Graded from 180 snapshots