REPRICED FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Window 23 Aug 2026, 14:45 UTC → 23 Aug 2026, 16:15 UTC

Price at window start 28¢ → at trigger 32¢ → at close 27¢

YES up · NO down

Resolves 31 Oct 2026, 23:59 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 28¢ at window start → 27¢ at close
BOOK Book 2.3:1 ask, $1.8k/$4.1k within 10¢
VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $2.9k in 24h

Book 2.3:1 ask, $1.8k/$4.1k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (2)

23 Aug 2026, 14:45 UTC: Sustained reprice: 28¢ → 32¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
23 Aug 2026, 15:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 28¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.21× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 32¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
+30m: 28¢, held +0.5ptspts
Peak move: +4.0pts
Held 0% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: yes
Price at close: 27¢
Graded from 180 snapshots