Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.5pts: 39¢ at window start → 41¢ at close
• BOOK Book 3.6:1 bid, $3.4k/$934 within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $4.4k in 24h

Book 3.6:1 bid, $3.4k/$934 within 10¢ · spread 4.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 23 Aug 2026, 17:21 UTC: Band breach (lower): 39¢ → 38¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 38¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 38¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 41¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots