OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Kalshi
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Window 23 Aug 2026, 11:56 UTC → 23 Aug 2026, 13:26 UTC
Price at window start 67¢ → at trigger 66¢ → at close 67¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +0.3pts: 67¢ at window start → 67¢ at close
- BOOK Book 3.8:1 ask, $3.6k/$13.6k within 10¢
- VOLUME 0.4× this market's 7-day norm, $2.6k in 24h
Book 3.8:1 ask, $3.6k/$13.6k within 10¢ · spread 2.1¢
Triggers (1)
- 23 Aug 2026, 11:56 UTC: Band breach (lower): 67¢ → 66¢ (-0.9pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.32× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 66¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 66¢, held +0.9ptspts
- Peak move: +0.9pts
- Held 0% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 67¢
- Graded from 181 snapshots