Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 7¢ at window start → 7¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $4.6k/$6.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.2× this market's 7-day norm, $4.6k in 24h

Book 1.5:1 ask, $4.6k/$6.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 23 Aug 2026, 20:19 UTC: Band breach (lower): 7¢ → 6¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.16× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 6¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 6¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 7¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots