Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 8¢ at window start → 7¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.0:1 ask, $4.9k/$9.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.4× this market's 7-day norm, $8.4k in 24h

Book 2.0:1 ask, $4.9k/$9.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 23 Aug 2026, 11:05 UTC: Band breach (lower): 8¢ → 7¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.19× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 7¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 7¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 7¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots