2028 Democratic presidential nominee

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.5pts: 18¢ at window start → 22¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 19¢ (band 16¢–19¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 8.3× this market's 7-day norm, $56.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $35.5k/$54.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $850, 9.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,688 trades / 7d

Book 1.5:1 ask, $35.5k/$54.3k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 23 Aug 2026, 05:39 UTC: Band breach (upper): 18¢ → 21¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 107 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 21¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 21¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.5pts
• Held 82% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 22¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots