2028 Democratic presidential nominee

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 19¢ at window start → 20¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 19¢ (band 16¢–19¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 10.5× this market's 7-day norm, $73.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.1:1 ask, $51.1k/$105.4k within 10¢

Book 2.1:1 ask, $51.1k/$105.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 23 Aug 2026, 21:11 UTC: Band breach (upper): 19¢ → 20¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 26 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 20¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 21¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 20¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots