2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 46¢ at window start → 47¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 46¢ (band 15¢–46¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.8:1 ask, $44.4k/$124.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $930, 1.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 412 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.4× this market's 7-day norm, $2.4k in 24h

Book 2.8:1 ask, $44.4k/$124.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 23 Aug 2026, 23:13 UTC: Band breach (upper): 46¢ → 47¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.02× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 47¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 47¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 47¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots