Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 53¢ at window start → 50¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 55¢ (band 55¢–59¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.6× this market's 7-day norm, $953 in 24h
• BOOK Book 17.1:1 ask, $107/$1.8k within 10¢

Book 17.1:1 ask, $107/$1.8k within 10¢ · spread 4.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 10:20 UTC: Sustained reprice: 53¢ → 50¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 50¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 51¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 50¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots