Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 70¢ at window start → 72¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 70¢ (band 56¢–70¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.9× this market's 7-day norm, $1.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.4:1 bid, $8.8k/$3.8k within 10¢

Book 2.4:1 bid, $8.8k/$3.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 04:11 UTC: Band breach (upper): 70¢ → 71¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 72¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 72¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.5pts
• Held 80% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 72¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots