Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 90¢ at window start → 90¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 90¢ (band 82¢–90¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $13.3k/$19.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.1× this market's 7-day norm, $180 in 24h

Book 1.5:1 ask, $13.3k/$19.8k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 23:18 UTC: Band breach (upper): 90¢ → 90¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 90¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 90¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 90¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots