Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 51¢ at window start → 52¢ at close
• VOLUME 11.3× this market's 7-day norm, $27.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.8:1 bid, $21.4k/$7.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $549, 1.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 113 trades / 7d

Book 2.8:1 bid, $21.4k/$7.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 22 Aug 2026, 10:49 UTC: Band breach (upper): 51¢ → 55¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 22 Aug 2026, 11:23 UTC: Sustained reprice: 55¢ → 52¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.8× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 55¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 54¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 25% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 52¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots