Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.8pts: 80¢ at window start → 78¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $45.8k/$57.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $33.0k in 24h

Book 1.2:1 ask, $45.8k/$57.1k within 10¢ · spread 0.4¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 19:53 UTC: Sustained reprice: 80¢ → 77¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.23× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 77¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 77¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 95% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 78¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots