Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 88¢ at window start → 92¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 89¢ (band 83¢–89¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $18.8k/$15.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $6.7k in 24h

Book 1.2:1 bid, $18.8k/$15.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 14:11 UTC: Band breach (upper): 88¢ → 91¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.46× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 10 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 90¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 92¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 80% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 92¢
• Graded from 166 snapshots