Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.2pts: 91¢ at window start → 89¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 93¢ (band 93¢–97¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.8× this market's 7-day norm, $25.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 5.6:1 ask, $2.1k/$11.8k within 10¢

Book 5.6:1 ask, $2.1k/$11.8k within 10¢ · spread 0.4¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 11:43 UTC: Sustained reprice: 91¢ → 88¢ (-3.1pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.72× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 88¢, drift -0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 89¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.1pts
• Held 73% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 89¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots