Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.4pts: 93¢ at window start → 89¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 93¢ (band 93¢–97¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 2.3× this market's 7-day norm, $20.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 221.2:1 ask, $1.1k/$249.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $152, 1.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 526 trades / 7d

Book 221.2:1 ask, $1.1k/$249.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.2¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 03:42 UTC: Band breach (lower): 93¢ → 92¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.12× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 54 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 92¢, drift -0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 92¢, held +0.6ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 89¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots