When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 6¢ at window start → 5¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 5¢ (band 5¢–11¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 bid, $8.9k/$8.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $2.0k in 24h

Book 1.0:1 bid, $8.9k/$8.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 11:33 UTC: Band breach (lower): 6¢ → 5¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@DeItaone · X: posted 1h 13m before the break

IRAN GRANTS SOME IRAQI OIL TANKERS PASSAGE THROUGH HORMUZ Iran has authorized a number of Iraqi oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz following repeated requests from Baghdad, according to IRNA. The special permission comes as overall shipping through the Strait remains severely restricted. Iraq, which relies heavily on Gulf export routes, is also working to expand alternative oil shipments through Turkey, Syria and Jordan.

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 5¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 5¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 5¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots