US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.2pts: 66¢ at window start → 69¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.4:1 bid, $27.5k/$11.2k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $58.9k in 24h

Book 2.4:1 bid, $27.5k/$11.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.3¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC: Sustained reprice: 66¢ → 71¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.35× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 71¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 69¢, held +3.3ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 63% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 69¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots