Texas Senate winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 49¢ at window start → 48¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 48¢ (band 48¢–51¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $89.8k/$133.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.8k, 7.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,438 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $11.5k in 24h

Book 1.5:1 ask, $89.8k/$133.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 15:10 UTC: Band breach (lower): 49¢ → 48¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 14 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 48¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 48¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 48¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots