South Carolina Senate winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 89¢ at window start → 88¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 89¢ (band 89¢–92¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 11.1× this market's 7-day norm, $9.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 23.9:1 ask, $19.5k/$465.0k within 10¢

Book 23.9:1 ask, $19.5k/$465.0k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 19:03 UTC: Band breach (lower): 89¢ → 88¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 88¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 89¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 88¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots