South Carolina Senate winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.7pts: 89¢ at window start → 89¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 89¢ (band 89¢–92¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 11.3× this market's 7-day norm, $9.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 22.0:1 ask, $21.6k/$474.2k within 10¢

Book 22.0:1 ask, $21.6k/$474.2k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 13:13 UTC: Band breach (lower): 89¢ → 89¢ (-0.7pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.23× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 89¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 89¢, held +0.7ptspts
• Peak move: +0.7pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 89¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots