Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.5pts: 24¢ at window start → 26¢ at close
• BOOK Book 5.3:1 bid, $23.1k/$4.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.0k, 1.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 130 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.1× this market's 7-day norm, $216 in 24h

Book 5.3:1 bid, $23.1k/$4.3k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 22 Aug 2026, 19:03 UTC: Band breach (upper): 24¢ → 29¢ (+5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 22 Aug 2026, 19:08 UTC: Sustained reprice: 29¢ → 25¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.83× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 28¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 26¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.5pts
• Held 45% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 26¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots