Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -21.0pts: 61¢ at window start → 40¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 55¢ (band 55¢–61¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 5.2:1 ask, $8.7k/$45.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $3.6k in 24h

Book 5.2:1 ask, $8.7k/$45.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 08:58 UTC: Band breach (lower): 61¢ → 40¢ (-21.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 3.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 40¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 40¢, held +21.0ptspts
• Peak move: +21.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 40¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots