Maine Senate winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 35¢ at window start → 34¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 34¢ (band 34¢–37¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $28.5k/$35.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.6× this market's 7-day norm, $1.1k in 24h

Book 1.2:1 ask, $28.5k/$35.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 06:40 UTC: Band breach (lower): 35¢ → 34¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 34¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 34¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 34¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots