Maine Senate winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +33.0pts: 34¢ at window start → 67¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 37¢ (band 34¢–37¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.6× this market's 7-day norm, $4.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 bid, $50.1k/$34.2k within 10¢

Book 1.5:1 bid, $50.1k/$34.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 08:58 UTC: Sustained reprice: 34¢ → 67¢ (+33.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 11× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 67¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 67¢, held +33.0ptspts
• Peak move: +33.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 67¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots