Iran full airspace closure by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.5pts: 12¢ at window start → 10¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 11¢ (band 11¢–16¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $3.4k/$2.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $15.9k in 24h

Book 1.2:1 bid, $3.4k/$2.7k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 22:54 UTC: Band breach (lower): 12¢ → 11¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.22× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 11¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 10¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 10¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots