Iran full airspace closure by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 12¢ at window start → 12¢ at close
• VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $17.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $3.7k/$2.3k within 10¢

Book 1.6:1 bid, $3.7k/$2.3k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 17:42 UTC: Band breach (lower): 12¢ → 11¢ (-1.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 13 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 11¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 10¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 12¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots