Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.5pts: 31¢ at window start → 27¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 30¢ (band 30¢–43¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.1:1 ask, $2.0k/$4.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $3.8k in 24h

Book 2.1:1 ask, $2.0k/$4.1k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 13:54 UTC: Band breach (lower): 31¢ → 28¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.24× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 28¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 27¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 90% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 27¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots