Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.5pts: 42¢ at window start → 37¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 43¢ (band 43¢–57¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 2.3:1 bid, $1.3k/$559 within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $10.7k in 24h
  volume from the 15:56 UTC snapshot (no close reading)

Book 2.3:1 bid, $1.3k/$559 within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC: Sustained reprice: 42¢ → 38¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 38¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 38¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 37¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots