Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 41¢ at window start → 41¢ at close
• BOOK Book 13.8:1 bid, $164.2k/$11.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.2× this market's 7-day norm, $646 in 24h

Book 13.8:1 bid, $164.2k/$11.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 07:57 UTC: Band breach (upper): 41¢ → 42¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 29s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 42¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 41¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 41¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots