2028 Republican presidential nominee

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +21.0pts: 23¢ at window start → 44¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 24¢ (band 21¢–24¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 4.3× this market's 7-day norm, $5.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $112.8k/$71.8k within 10¢

Book 1.6:1 bid, $112.8k/$71.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 08:58 UTC: Band breach (upper): 23¢ → 44¢ (+21.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 7× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 44¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 44¢, held +21.0ptspts
• Peak move: +21.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 44¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots