2028 Republican presidential nominee

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 20¢ at window start → 23¢ at close
• VOLUME 3.3× this market's 7-day norm, $4.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.8:1 ask, $22.9k/$86.5k within 10¢

Book 3.8:1 ask, $22.9k/$86.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 03:53 UTC: Sustained reprice: 20¢ → 23¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 23¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 23¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 23¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots