2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +31.0pts: 16¢ at window start → 47¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 16¢ (band 13¢–16¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 6.7× this market's 7-day norm, $21.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.3:1 ask, $48.7k/$113.8k within 10¢

Book 2.3:1 ask, $48.7k/$113.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 22 Aug 2026, 08:58 UTC: Band breach (upper): 16¢ → 47¢ (+31.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 10.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 47¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 47¢, held +31.0ptspts
• Peak move: +31.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 47¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots