Wisconsin Governor winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 75¢ at window start → 77¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 76¢ (band 73¢–76¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 2.1× this market's 7-day norm, $8.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $14.0k/$8.9k within 10¢

Book 1.6:1 bid, $14.0k/$8.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 21 Aug 2026, 03:50 UTC: Band breach (upper): 75¢ → 77¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.57× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 76¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 76¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 77¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots