Wisconsin Governor winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 76¢ at window start → 77¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 76¢ (band 73¢–76¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 2.2× this market's 7-day norm, $14.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $16.0k/$13.5k within 10¢

Book 1.2:1 bid, $16.0k/$13.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 21 Aug 2026, 22:57 UTC: Band breach (upper): 76¢ → 77¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 77¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 77¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 77¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots