Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 71¢ at window start → 69¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 70¢ (band 70¢–73¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $107.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.2:1 ask, $70.6k/$296.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $726, 1.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,891 trades / 7d

Book 4.2:1 ask, $70.6k/$296.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 21 Aug 2026, 23:02 UTC: Band breach (lower): 71¢ → 70¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 21 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 70¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 69¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 69¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots