Will Trump be impeached?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.5pts: 56¢ at window start → 60¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 59¢ (band 56¢–59¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 4.3:1 bid, $75.1k/$17.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $1.7k in 24h

Book 4.3:1 bid, $75.1k/$17.4k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 21 Aug 2026, 19:32 UTC: Band breach (upper): 56¢ → 60¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 60¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 60¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 60¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots