Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 23¢ at window start → 21¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 22¢ (band 22¢–25¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 6.7× this market's 7-day norm, $41.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 22.1:1 ask, $1.2k/$26.8k within 10¢

Book 22.1:1 ask, $1.2k/$26.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 21 Aug 2026, 03:49 UTC: Band breach (lower): 23¢ → 22¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 18 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 21¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 21¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 21¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots