Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 37¢ at window start → 37¢ at close
• VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $13.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 6.8:1 ask, $6.5k/$44.2k within 10¢

Book 6.8:1 ask, $6.5k/$44.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 21 Aug 2026, 09:53 UTC: Band breach (lower): 37¢ → 36¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 37¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 37¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 37¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots