Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -5.0pts: 59¢ at window start → 54¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 57¢ (band 57¢–61¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 8.4:1 ask, $229/$1.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $711 in 24h

Book 8.4:1 ask, $229/$1.9k within 10¢ · spread 4.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 21 Aug 2026, 16:41 UTC: Band breach (lower): 59¢ → 55¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 55¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 54¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 54¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots