Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +5.0pts: 28¢ at window start → 33¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 28¢ (band 25¢–28¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.0× this market's 7-day norm, $506.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 5.5:1 bid, $214.1k/$38.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $18.9k, 9.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,563 trades / 7d

Book 5.5:1 bid, $214.1k/$38.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 21 Aug 2026, 13:42 UTC: Band breach (upper): 28¢ → 30¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 21 Aug 2026, 14:34 UTC: Sustained reprice: 30¢ → 33¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 204 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 30¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 31¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 33¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots