Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 30¢ at window start → 34¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 29¢ (band 23¢–29¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 69.5× this market's 7-day norm, $13.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $4.8k/$4.0k within 10¢

Book 1.2:1 bid, $4.8k/$4.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 21 Aug 2026, 14:37 UTC: Sustained reprice: 30¢ → 34¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 34¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 34¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 34¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots