Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +5.0pts: 49¢ at window start → 54¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 52¢ (band 47¢–52¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $8.1k/$6.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $216, 1.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 343 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $15.0k in 24h

Book 1.2:1 bid, $8.1k/$6.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 21 Aug 2026, 04:23 UTC: Sustained reprice: 49¢ → 52¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 21 Aug 2026, 04:44 UTC: Band breach (upper): 52¢ → 53¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.71× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 52¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 53¢, held +4.5ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 54¢
• Graded from 173 snapshots