Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 22¢ at window start → 22¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 22¢ (band 18¢–22¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.1× this market's 7-day norm, $60.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 bid, $13.1k/$8.9k within 10¢

Book 1.5:1 bid, $13.1k/$8.9k within 10¢ · spread 0.3¢

Triggers (1)

• 21 Aug 2026, 05:58 UTC: Band breach (upper): 22¢ → 22¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.15× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 22¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 22¢, held +0.6ptspts
• Peak move: +0.6pts
• Held 83% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 22¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots